Can Money Buy Your Love?: A Cubs Preview (Part Two)

Before I begin, I wanted to mention what a disgrace it is that Ron Santo was denied entrance to the Hall of Fame once again. All the guy did was put up statistics which compare to the best third baseman ever... while suffering from diabetes. What am I missing here? His absence in the Hall of Fame is a disgrace and embarrassment to the game of baseball.

OK, on to the second part of my 2007 Chicago Cubs preview...


BENCH (INFIELDERS)

Henry Blanco: Blanco is the best backup catcher in the league, hands down. The Cubs managed to sign him early in free agency before other teams could drive up the price for his sought-after services. Among all the big moves that Hendry made, retaining Blanco might have been one of the most important. Offense has never been his strength. In fact, his numbers last year (.266 avg, 6 HR, and 37 RBI) were the best of his career. An injury to Barrett allowed Blanco to get into somewhat of a rhythm at the plate and it showed with better offensive statistics. Nevertheless, he is invaluable to the Cubs because of his defense. Only one catcher last year, Pudge Rodriguez, had a better percentage of throwing out runners that were trying to steal. For his career, Blanco has stopped over 40% of base runners trying to swipe a base and consider this: for the majority of his time in the major leagues, he was the personal catcher of Greg Maddux, a pitcher notorious for ignoring base runners. Last season, Blanco also had a fielding percentage of .998. Managers were hesitant to call for sacrifice bunts when Blanco was playing, because they knew if the bunt wasn't perfect Blanco would fire a strike to second to record the out. He completely disrupts the opposition's running attack because even the fastest of players have to think twice before taking off. This is why he is so important to the Cubs. He acts as a security blanket for the team if Barrett doesn't continue his gradual defensive development.

Ryan Theriot: Just take a look at the numbers for Theriot last year: .328 avg, 6 HR, 16, RBI, 13 SB, 34 Runs, and .412 OBP in only 134 AB. You can see why the Cubs are so high on his future. There has been talk that Theriot is the perfect candidate to hit behind Soriano, because his patience at the plate is that of a seasoned veteran and it's hard to argue when you look at his statistics. But what position is he going to play? Unless the Cubs find a way to deal Jones before opening day and either move DeRosa to right or let Theriot play the outfield, you can expect him to begin the year as a super utility man. It's a shame that his growth as a player might be hindered somewhat since he will have to start on the bench, but if he continues to grow at the rate he showed last year, the Cubs will be forced to make room for him in the everyday lineup sooner rather than later. As it stands now, he will get time at second base when DeRosa has to move to right to give Jones a rest against lefties. He can also play shortstop is Izturis goes down to injury and he has been fielding balls at third base just in case something happens to Ramirez. In the offseason, Theriot made it a point to catch fly balls in the outfield if Piniella chooses to play him there at some point. No matter what, the Cubs have a young, valuable utility man who can also serve as a speedy pinch runner. It should be fun to watch him grow.

Daryle Ward (INF/OF): Ward takes on John Mabry's role from last year: a left-handed, pinch hitting specialist who can give Derek Lee a rest from time to time and who can also play the outfield in an emergency. Ward led all major league pinch hitters with a .355 avg, 17 RBI and a .645 slugging percentage last season. His four pinch-hit homers were tied for the best in the league with Cincinnati's Javier Valentine. Overall, Ward hit .308 and his average rose to .371 with runners in scoring position, a stat which will come into play more times than not as a pinch hitter. Ward is considered one of the top fastball-hitting players in the game which is an important quality to have since the pitcher will try to test you as a pinch hitter knowing that you came straight from the bench and aren't completely loosened up yet. This was another one of Hendry's signings that took a backseat to the bigger acquisitions, but Ward should be considered a major upgrade to the bench.

BENCH (OUTFIELDERS)

Angel Pagan: Talk about speed. Pagan might be the fastest player that I have ever seen, except for maybe Tampa's Carl Crawford and Seattle's Ichiro. His season was cut short due to a hamstring injury, but he's healthy now and he says that his legs feel better than ever, which is a good thing for the Cubs since they will ask him to pinch-run in crucial situations. On the whole, the Cubs are a fast team this year with Soriano and Izturis playing everyday and Theriot and Pagan coming off the bench. Pagan's offense is not good enough to allow him to start. He is average at best with the bat, but, as I said before, deadly once he gets on base. I once witnessed him have to slide midway between second and third just to stop his momentum since he was running so fast. I never saw anything like that before. His defense is good and his speed allows him to chase down balls that most players wouldn't be able to. He is a great player to have on the bench, but the Cubs will know they are in trouble if they have to plug him into the everyday lineup like they did on more than one occasion last year.

Felix Pie: I'm choosing not to spend too much time on Pie since the Cubs are saying that he will more than likely be sent down to AAA after spring training. Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella want to avoid a repeat of the Corey Patterson situation when the organization's number one rated prospect was called up too early. Pie is a legitimate five-tool threat with great speed and growing power. He has great range and a strong arm in center. But he has a lot of work to do in regard to his plate discipline and although he possesses great speed, his base-stealing technique needs to be refined. Last season at West Tennessee he appeared in 59 games, going 73 for 240 with 41 runs, 17 doubles, 5 triples, 11 hrs, 25 RBI, 16 BB, 53 K, and 13 SB while hitting for a .304 average. However, he struggled in the Dominican league this winter, appearing in 29 games, going 19 for 91 with 12 runs, 3 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 4 BB, 19 K, and 1 SB while hitting .209. If he has a strong showing at spring training, then he has a shot to make the squad. My bet would be on him starting in the minors. If the trade I just heard about (Jacques Jones for Geoff Jenkins) is true, then that means Pie will be called up sooner than later, because Jenkins has a buyout in his contract next year. Interesting. Stay tuned.

ROTATION

1. Carlos Zambrano (R)
2. Ted Lilly (L)
3. Jason Marquis (R)
4. Rich Hill (L)
5. Mark Prior (R) - Could be moved to the third slot with Marquis sliding down to five if Prior manages to stay healthy throughout spring training

Zambrano: There's not much to say about Zambrano. He is quickly becoming one of the young premier pitchers in the game. The numbers he has been putting up the last few years have been astounding considering that he ranks among the bottom of the league when it comes to run support. He has been winning an average of 15 games for the last three seasons with a bad team behind him. That's impressive. Last year he was 16-7 with a 3.41 ERA and 210 strikeouts. With a wicked slider and blazing fastball, he is the prototype ground ball pitcher for Wrigley Field. In addition, the man can hit. He ranked first in homers by a pitcher last year and third in batting average. Considering that this is a contract year for him (if the Cubs can't sign him by opening day), expect him to put up even better numbers. Not only will he be motivated to prove he deserves Barry Zito-like money, but he also has a good lineup to support him. My hope is that the Cubs don't let another star pitcher get away, but if they feel that they can't sign him before the start of the year, then trade him for 3 or 4 very good major league-ready players or top prospects. If they keep him the entire year, I see Zambrano earning 20 wins for the first time in his career.

Ted Lilly: Lilly was ranked as the 8th best free agent on the market by ESPN.com... ahead of Barry Zito. The summary under his picture said something along the lines of "Lilly is Barry Zito with more stuff." His career record of 59-58 will not instill confidence in Cubs fans, but keep this in mind: Lilly was not a full-time starter until 2003 when he went 12-10. In four years as a starter he finished only once with a losing record and managed to do so with bad teams behind him. Toronto was a bottom feeder until just last year, yet Lilly managed to keep his record above the .500 mark in every season but one. He has a knee-buckling curve ball which he likes to set up with a letter-high fastball that he often uses as his strikeout pitch. The one concern is that he is a fly-ball pitcher and that does not translate well in Wrigley. However, that was the knock on Howry as well and he's turned out just fine. I like Lilly. I think he is the mentally-tough SOB that the rotation has been lacking for quite some time. He is also considered a great club house guy and has been described as a rock for the younger players to lean on when the major league becomes mentally and physically exhausting. I think he will turn out just fine for the Cubs.

Jason Marquis: This guy has turned out to be an enigma wrapped in a mystery. Only a few years ago, when he was in Atlanta, Maddux was calling Marquis the future of pitching in the major leagues. He was then shipped to St. Louis in a blockbuster deal, where he was expected to be the ace of that staff for years to come. He did just that in his first year with the Cardinals, going 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA and 138 strikeouts compared to 70 walks. Last year he started as well as you could hope for (he was 11-6). But after the All-Star break it all fell apart. He recorded a 3-10 record in the second half with a 6.72 ERA. No one had a technical explanation for this 180 degree turn, so more than likely it had something to do with his mental psyche and his confidence. Larry Rothschild, after receiving advice from Maddux, had Marquis workout for the Cubs in the offseason. Rothschild liked enough of what he saw to advise Hendry to sign Marquis to a 3-year, $21 million deal. The scouting report on him is that he throws a heavy sinker, good changeup, nasty cutter, and a low to mid-90's fastball. That sounds identical to when Maddux first came into the league which should come as no surprise since it was Maddux who mentored Marquis when they were both with the Braves. I honestly don't know what the Cubs are going to get out of him this year. In this case, it could be one extreme or the other. I could see Marquis doing well in Chicago, because he gets a lot of ground balls with his sinker, cutter, and changeup. But I could also see him imploding and losing his confidence if, for example, he has a bad game on a day when the wind is blowing out. Tough to get a read on this guy. We'll just have to wait and see.

Rich Hill: Hill finally started to live up to the hype at the end of last year. Before the All-Star break Hill went 0-4 with an ERA over 9. The coaching staff was collectively shaking their heads, wondering when they were going to see the pitcher that every scout told them could dominate at the major league level. And then, after the All-Star break, it clicked. Hill went 6-3 with an ERA of 2.97. He also recorded 90 strikeouts to only 40 walks. If you thought Lilly or Zito had a good curve ball, wait until you see Hill in action, if you haven't already. How he gets the ball to dip so severely I will never know, but it is like watching one of those cartoons where the ball does about 6 corkscrews and 10 flips before it gets to the plate. His fastball tops out at 93, so he is not blowing anyone away, but he uses his heater to keep the hitters off balanced and then he drops the famous curve on them. If his progression continues, the Cubs have found their future ace and Hill could have a great year simply because major league hitters are not that familiar with him at this point in his career. I have a feeling though that by the end of the season opposing teams will know his name.

Mark Prior: Last, but not least. What can you even say about Prior other than when he is healthy he ranks among the best pitchers in the game, period. From 2004-2006, Prior has spent most of his time on the DL, but guess what, his career record is still 42-29 with an ERA of 3.51. If that doesn't demonstrate just how good this guy is, then I don't know what will. He is capable of getting the heater over at 96-98 MPH and he combines that with a hard-biting curve which is completely different than the finesse curve that Hill throws, yet just as effective. I say it again, if he stays healthy, Prior has the capabilities of an ace, so slotting him no higher than the third spot in the rotation is a great luxury for the Cubs to have. It allows the team to take some of the pressure off of Prior and match him up with the opposition's third starter instead of guys like Chris Carpenter or Roy Oswalt. This will cause Prior to regain the confidence he once had before all the injuries. I have a good feeling (knock on wood) about Prior this year. I think he will stay healthy and come close, if not return completely, to his dominant form.

BULLPEN

With Neil Cotts, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, Scott Eyre, Bob Howry, Wade Miller, Roberto Navoa, Will Ohman, and Michael Wertz, it's safe to say the Cubs won't have trouble finding pitchers to fill out their bullpen. Piniella has said that he wants to have twelve pitchers on the roster when the season starts, meaning there will be seven guys in the bullpen. Therefore, two pitchers in the list from above will be sent to AAA or be dealt elsewhere. I think that Navoa and Wertz fall into this category. But, with talent like the Cubs have in their relief corps, it is safe to say that the Cubs boast one of the best, if not the best, pens in the entire league.

I believe that, when all is said and done, Wood will be the closer for the Cubs, which, in my opinion, works out perfect because Dempster used to be a starter and could take on a long-reliever or emergency starter role. I think that Wood could be as good a closer as Smoltz was in Atlanta when he made the same transition. Wood showed he could handle 8th-inning responsibilities last season with ease and I believe that will translate to success in the ninth inning.

Cotts gives the Cubs another long-relief option and he combines with Eyre and Ohman to form an impressive left-handed trio. Having this type of depth will translate to better years for the starters as well. I talked earlier about relieving Prior of some of the pressure on him. Having a pen which can take over in the sixth inning, if needed to, puts the starters at ease knowing that most leads will be safe with such a solid bullpen ready to come in.

The most intriguing pitcher to keep an eye on is Wade Miller. Where does he fit in? Remember, when he is healthy (I know it sounds redundant by now), Miller could easily be considered a 3rd or 4th starter. Will Piniella put him in the bullpen? There really is no other spot for him at this time and it would be a shame to waste the talent that he brings to the table, especially after investing in a player who has been rehabing for a year. It will be interesting to see how position battles such as this shape out during spring training.

Overall, the Cubs have what it takes to make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2003. The talent is there. On paper (I know, it's a dangerous phrase) they are superior to the rest of the teams in their division. I truly believe they will win the NL central. You get into the playoffs and anything can happen. Could the Cubs win the world series this year? Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We all know how long of a season it is and how different factors such as injury can affect performance, so right now it's one step at a time. But there's no doubting that they have put themselves in a position to enjoy success. Tune in April 2nd if you want to see for yourself.