It's that time of year again, football season, and with the first game only days away I thought that now was as good an opportunity as any to make my predictions. I've done hours of extensive research, reading up on all the teams, and I'll be talking regular season win totals, playoff seeding, and winners of every game from the Wild Card Weekend all the way to the Super Bowl. If you're into betting on football, all the information you'll need is right here. Let's get started...
Here are my predicted final standings for each division.
Win totals will only be shown for teams that I think will make the playoffs
AFC EAST 1) New England: 11-5 2) NY Jets: 10-63) Miami 4) Buffalo AFC NORTH 1) Baltimore: 11-5 2) Cincinnati3) Pittsburgh 4) Cleveland AFC SOUTH 1) Indianapolis: 14-2 2) Jacksonville 3) Tennessee 4) Houston AFC WEST 1) San Diego: 13-3 2) Kansas City: 9-7 3) Denver4) Oakland NFC EAST 1) Philadelphia: 11-5 2) Dallas: 9-7 3) NY Giants: 9-74) WashingtonNFC NORTH 1) Chicago: 12-4 2) Minnesota 3) Detroit 4) Green Bay NFC SOUTH 1) Carolina: 10-6 2) Atlanta: 9-74) New Orleans5) Tampa BayNFC WEST 1) Seattle: 12-4 2) San Francisco3) St. Louis4) Arizona SUPERBOWL: CHICAGO vs. BALTIMOREAnalysis Let's start with the AFC East. The Patriots' run is over? Not, just yet. I think that everyone is overestimating the signing of Daunte Culpepper. I live in Ft. Lauderdale and the Dolphins practice nearby. From what I could see, Culpepper's knee did not look anything close to being ready for the season. He made some plays with his good arm but he looked a shell of his former self even in half-speed drills. But don't get me wrong. I think the Patriots have major flaws including the fact that they will be forced to use a three tight end formation at times due to the lack of quality WRs on their roster. I'm still wondering how in the world they would let Vinatieri go. That will ultimately be their downfall. There has never been a better kicker in the history of the NFL, especially in clutch situations. Nevertheless, the Patriots win this division by default. Remember, they still have one of the best football coaches to ever grace a field and a QB who does nothing but find ways to win. The Jets might give them a run for their money but I will get into that later.As for Miami: All you ever hear lately is how they have finally found that QB to replace Marino. Give me a break. The only reason he had success in Minnesota was because of Moss. He is not good at reading defenses, and as I said before, he can't make up for it, at least not this year, by using his legs to move the chains. On a positive note, Chambers and Booker are top-notch wide receivers, second-year RB Ronnie Brown rushed for almost 1,000 yards as a rookie sharing playing time, and Randy McMichael is considered to be one of the best Tight Ends in the league. But will Culpepper get them the ball? The defense will always be a constant, especially with a team coached by Nick Saban. Expect progress for the Dolphins this year, but don't buy into what all the so-called "experts are saying".The Jets will be this year's surprise team. Take a look at their schedule; there is maybe three games this season, Chicago and New England twice, where they go in thinking they have no chance to win. Even against the Patriots, look for Mangini's knowledge of his old team to keep the game closer than it should be which could possibly lead to an upset. There is no reason for this team not to make the playoffs. They would ultimatley lose when they got there but I still think they make it into the tournament. Look for Pennington to have a bounce back season. He has a good WR corps surrounding him. The oonly question mark will be at RB but look for little-known Leon Washington to provide a spark in that area. Also, their defense is underrated with guys like DT Dewayne Robertson and OLB Jonathan Vilma. I predict 9-10 wins for this group.The AFC North is an intriguing division, and should be considered one of the toughest in the league with the improvement of Baltimore. I feel that, with the addition of Steve McNair, the Ravens should win that division, beating out two very good teams in the process, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Year in and year out, the defense has been outstanding and, like Miami, the only thing that Baltimore has been lacking is a star QB. Now, with a proven signal caller behind center, the weapons on offense which the Ravens have always possessed can finally be unleashed. Despite what you may have heard, Baltimore has two good receivers for McNair to throw to, Derrick Mason, who McNair played with for many years in Tennessee, and the talented Mark Clayton. Expect both of their statistics to double now that they have someone to actually get them the ball. Add a healthy Jamal Lewis and Pro Bowl TE Todd Heap into the mix and offense no longer seems like a liability in Baltimore. As for Pittsburgh, I don't think they will be able to overcome losing both Jerome Bettis and Randle El, at least not enough to win the division. I have heard analysts say that the loss of Bettis will hurt the most, but I don't agree because even last year I considered Willie Parker to be the number one guy and I think that he will be a stud for fantasy owners this year due to the way that Pittsburgh emphasizes the run. I can see the Steelers using Najeh Davenport in short yardage situations and I don't think Bettis will be that big of a loss. However, with no Randle El, the receiving core looks very thin and very shaky. Outside of Hines Ward there is no go-to guy and Steelers fans should not count on rookie Santonio Holmes, at least not this year. After watching last night's preseason game against the Eagles, you can see how missing most of training camp has slowed his learning process. I think I saw him line up with the third-stringers at one point. With another year under his belt, look for Roethlisberger to pass the ball much more than in the past. I've never been a fan of his. I think that he is highly overrated and his success in the past was the result of a great team around him. Honestly, the Steelers should not have won the Super Bowl. Let's be honest, the refs robbed Seattle. The only touchdown pass thrown in that game for Pittsburgh was by a WR. Roethlisberger has trouble reading defenses which is shown by how many times he is forced to throw on the run. It has nothing to do with his offensive line. He is just too slow in assesing the defense and being decisive. In my opinion, Roethlisberger will have a bad season.As for the Bengals, a lot depends on the health of Carson Palmer, which will be determined by how he feels after tonight's game against Green Bay. The other night he played great but when he came out he had to be helped up the stairs because his knee is not ready yet. That's not a good sign. Look for Chad Johnson's stats to take a minor dip this year because of Palmer's iffy knee. Also, I don't trust their defense which has a tendency to give up the big play down field. In addition, it seems that their players spend more time in jail than they do the field. Does character count for anything? Apparently not in Cincy. Too many question marks in Cincinnati. The AFC South is self-explanatory. The Colts may be even better than last year because of two things, the signing of Adam Vinitieri and the replacement of Edgerrin James with rookie Joseph Addai. I watched Addai play the other night and, although it was the pre-season, he looked as if he has the potential to be twice the running back that James ever was. The only thing left to say about Peyton Manning is that he hasn't won the big game yet. Will he ever get that playoff monkey off his back? I think he gets it done this year as long as his defense and special teams plays up to par. There's nothing to worry about in regards to the Colts' offense but the defense at times is as shaky as it gets, especially in the running game. Alot of that has to do with their defense being so small. They are built for speed and because of that, they get pushed around on many running plays. On special teams, they seem to give up alot of return yards, particularly on kickoffs. Those two units will have to support Manning if the Colts are to do anything this year. I'm going to say this just once: Jacksonville's 12-4 record last year was a fluke, plain and simple. It was nothing more than a result of an extremely weak schedule and if you think back, the Jaguars barely escaped some of those games against the Texans and 49ers. Not only is their schedule tougher this year but they seem to play down to their competition, losing to teams that have no business being on the same field with them. It's a shame because their defense is as good as that of Chicago and Baltimore but it's wasted because of an overall lack of team focus and effort. Leftwich is average at best, Fred Taylor is aging and gets hurt every year. On the bright side, I expect rookie RB Maurice Jones-Drew to pick up the slack for Taylor. This kid can run. They don't call him the human bowling ball for nothing. Nevertheless, don't expect a repeat this year from them. While Tennessee did improve themselves this off-season, and rookie QB Michael Young does look like the real deal, it's too soon for their upgrades, such as stealing WR David Givens from the Patriots, to equal enough success to get them back into the playoffs. Look for them to contend in 2-3 years when RB LenDale White and Young will combine to form one of the most potent one-two punches in the league. That said, they will be very exciting this year. Pacman Jones is as good of a return man as you can find in this league and Travis Henry is more than capable to hold down the fort until White is ready. I expect Young to start sooner than later and he'll show why he was picked so high in the draft. I'm excited to see this team grow in the near future. Houston, other than trading for WR Eric Moulds, didn't do nearly enough in the off-season to compete this year. They are going to regret not drafting Reggie Bush or hometown Michael Young for years to come, especially now that their starting RB, Domanick Davis, is shelved with knee and hamstring problems and David Carr looks like he takes a step back every year. Not much to say about the Texans. Whoever is their GM should be fired, and quick, because at this point, there has been plenty of time to have built a competitive squad. From the first day of their existence, with their opening pick in the expansion draft, they made the wrong decision, selecting once-dominant offensive lineman Tony Bosseli who played half a season before retiring. I don't see it getting better any time soon. They are stuck in a division with the powerhouse Colts and the up-and-comming Titans.It's depressing to dwell on them so let's move on. Now on to the AFC West. In my opinion, the Kansas City Chiefs, is the most improved team in this division, because they finally decided to get serious about the defensive side of the ball. Rookie DE Tamba Hali will team up with DEs Eric Hicks, Jared Allen, and DT Ryan Sims to form an excellent defensive line. 2006 Rookie of the year Derrick Johnson will play along side former Steeler and 2001 rookie of the year, LB Kendrell Bell, forming one of the best linebacking duos in the NFL. The secondary, which boasts the likes of Patrick Surtain, Ty Law, and Sammy Knight will also be a strength. The days of being able to run up the score on Kansas City are long gone and we all know what they are capable of offensively, with players like RB Larry Johnson, QB Trent Green, TE Tony Gonzalez, and the always dangerous Dante Hall. But while they have greatly improved themselves as an overall football team, San Diego is still the best team in this division. However, with their upgrades on defense, coupled with a full year from Larry Johnson, look for the Chiefs to make the playoffs.The Broncos will be another solid defensive team and, in my opinion, drafted a QB, Jay Cutler, who will supplant Jake Plummer behind center. In addition, coach Mike Shannahan seems to have found another diamond in the rough, a la Terrell Davis, with undrafted RB Mike Bell. He has the patience to wait for his blockers and then uses his breakaway speed in the open field to take it in for six. The addition of WR Javon Walker adds the big play threat that has been lacking opposite of veteran WR Rod Smith. TE Stephen Alexander at times last season became a security blanket for Plummer and is always a reliable option. As for the defense, with stars such as S John Lynch, CB Champ Bailey, LB Ian Gold, DT Gerrard Warren, and DE Courtney Brown, they should be as good, if not better, with another year of playing together. It all depends on how fast Cutler comes around, but I wouldn't expect the Broncos to be playing in the postseason this year but watch out season.As for the Chargers, I don't think it will take Philip Rivers that long to catch on, as some of the experts would have you believe. Remember, he is not a true rookie like Cutler and he was studying under a very good teacher in Drew Brees. All-world RB LaDanian Tomlinson will continue where he left off last year. In fact, look for him to have his best year ever because there will be more emphasis on the run this year than last . Defensively the Chargers are solid with Merriman leading the way. Cromartie, a rookie CB from Florida State who had to sit out his senior seaosn with a torn ACL might be the steal of the draft. He will be a shut-down corner and a good return man as well. Look for the Chargers to take the next step and supplant the Broncos for the division crown.There's not much to talk about when it comes to the Oakland Raiders. They have a horrible offense and they are miserable on the other side of the ball too. Actually their pass defense isn't half that bad but as a whole they are an embarrasement to the league. Randy Moss seems to lose more and more interest with every passing year and who could blame him with the trainwreck that is Aaron Brooks behind center. LaMont Jordan was a flash in the pan and Jerry Porter is already causing problems for head coach Art Shell. Their overall lack of talent, combined with a tough division, equals another year of last-place football. Now, for the NFC East. The consensus among experts is that this is the toughest division in football. but I think that every team has enough flaws, that anyone could win it. The Redskins have a headache at the QB position heading into the season. Mark Brunell is no longer adequate, because while he did an admirable job last season, at his age, 35, he no longer has enough left in the tank to survive another year. Nevertheless, he will be the starter for Washington, but look for second-year QB Jason Cambell to eventually replace Brunell at quarterback. Clinton Portis is also becoming a bit of a mystery in regards to the severity of his shoulder injury, something which was evident by the Redskins' acquisition of RB T.J. Duckett. If Portis is out for an extended period of time, expect the offense to struggle due to the uncertainty at QB. An unkown name who could make a name for himself this year is backup RB Ladell Betts. He showed promise late last year and could be a bright spot for Washington's offense. Duckett is a more than serviceable RB, but he is no Portis or Betts for that matter. If the quarterback, whether it be Brunell or Cambell, is able to consistently get rid of the ball, he has four good receivers, Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle-El, and David Patten, to use as targets. With this deep of a receiving corps, I'm surprised they haven't used it to their advantage yet and made a trade to address other areas of need. Washington is always a top defensive team and that should continue despite the loss of LB Lavar Harrington. All in all, I have a very bad feeling about this team. Look for them to be a big dissapointment this year. Another year of big offseason spending will equate to another down year for the Redskins. Dallas is an interesting team to try to dissect. I just don't like 'em, plain and simple. They're good, but not great in all aspects and I think that Terrell Owens, who today was already fined $10,000 for violating team rules, will be an even bigger distraction as the year goes on. My prediction is that he is released from the Cowboys around week 10 if not sooner. This is another team with a QB problem. The Cowboys ranked 29th in sacks allowed last year, partially due to a bad offensive line, but also because Drew Bledsoe is basically a statue. I think that backup QB Tony Romo will push Bledsoe for playing time and will eventually take his spot around mid-year. Bledsoe will never be happy having to look over his shoulder, and a disgruntled QB always results in more losses than wins. Look for them to trade him elsewhere next season. RB Julius Jones has the potential to be one of the better backs in the league, but like his brother in Chicago, he has to prove that he can consistently stay healthy. The defense will be there, but it won't be enough to make up for a sub-par offense. Their safties are better against the run then they are against the pass which is comical. Roy Williams is one of the best hitters in the NFL but he couldn't cover the backside of a barn. I think they will have enough to make the playoffs but don't expect too much out of this team. Philadelphia, in my opinion, is a dark horse and could completely ruin my predictions. I watched them last night against the Steelers, and they were running on all cylinders. McNabb looks healthy, they have good depth at RB with Westbrook and Buckhalter, and WR Reggie Brown looks like a keeper. But who will step up on the other side and take some of the attention away from Brown? That question was answered by the acquisition of Dante Stallworth. The fans of Philadelphia will quikcly learn to value him. He was a very good reciever in New Orleans and I'm confused why the Saints let him go so easily. In addition, if McNabb happens to get hurt, Jeff Garcia is a more than capable backup QB. TE L.J. Smith seems to be developing into one of the better players at his position, and the offensive line has been revamped with the massive additions of OT Winston Justice, 6-6, 320, and OG Max Jean-Gilles, 6-3, 358. Their defense also looks completely healthy, and they have some household names, such as Jevon Walker, Jeremiah Trotter, Lito Sheppard, and Brian Dawkins, which should allow for a successful season on that side of the ball. DE Darren Howard, formerly of the Saints, looks renergized, perhaps because he escaped a stressful situation in New Orleans. However, they could very well finish second to last for one main reason, their brutal second-half schedule. Take a look at their last seven games: at Indianapolis, vs. Carolina, at Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas, vs. Atlanta. It's completely conceivable that they go 0-7 in those games. There is a point to be made, that if their opponents have already secured a playoff birth, they will rest the starters, making it an easy win for the Eagles on that particular Sunday, but that thoery will not apply in this case. When Philadelphia plays Indianapolis and Carolina, it is too ealry in the season to be sending in the second units because both of those clubs I just mentioned will be gunning for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Every game after that will either be with a team attempting to earn the highest playoff seed possible or with a team that is fighting for it's life just to make the playoffs (the Giants, Dallas, and Atlanta). When you add the Redskins in week 10, Cowboys in week 4, and New York in week 2, to an already difficult second half of the schedule, you have a recipe for a potentially dissapointing season. Nevertheless, Andy Reid is as good as any coach in the league and he will have his team ready to do battle. I think the Eagles will win their division.The Giants, on the other hand, are the complete opposite of every other team in this division, because they are a terrible defensive team. They did add LB Lavar Harrington and S Will Demps, but it will not be enough for a squad that nearly gave up 40 points at home against the Carolina Panthers in last year's playoffs. They are very good on offense with QB Eli Manning, RB Tiki Barber, TE Jeremy Shockey, and WR Plaxico Burress, but is it enough to overcome their defensive shortcomings? No. Plus, I believe that after Roethlisberger Eli Manning is the most overrated QB in the league. It was a big mistake for the Giants to have chosen Manning over Rivers a couple of years back in the draft and they will regret it for years. Let's just say that he is not his brother and never will be. The Giants will be average at best.
The NFC North is not very hard to breakdown. The dominant team of the division has become the Chicago Bears and there is no reason why they should not repeat as champs this year. They are the only team in the entire league to bring back all 22 starters. Combine that with a healthy Rex Grossman (cross your fingers) and the team should be dramatically improved without the signing of a major free agent this off-season, with the exception of backup QB Brian Griese. If Grossman can keep himself in the lineup, Mushin Muhammad will see his stats rise dramatically, and look for running mate, WR Bernard Berrian, to have a breakout year as well. If, for some reason, Grossman falters, the Bears finally learned from past mistakes and signed a proven winner in Griese. At running back, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson form what might be the best combination of both speed and power of any team in the league. While Jones is a pure speed back, Benson has both. Look for him to replace Jones as the season goes on and take over full-time starting duties next year. The offensive line, which includes Olin Kreutz, Fred Miller, John Tait, Ruben Brown, and Roberto Garza, is one of the best in the NFL. This bodes well for the Bears, considering that they are a run-orientated team and Grossman is not very mobile. On defense, DEs Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown, both pro bowlers last year, lead one of the deepest defensive lines in not only the NFC, but the entire NFL. DT Tommie Harris, also voted to the pro bowl as a rookie last year, along with Ian Scott, are capable of completely stifling an opponent's running attack. DT Tank Johnson is constantly being rotated in and he is just as good if not better than Scott. We all know what Urlacher and Briggs are capable of, and the secondary has actually added more depth than it had last year. Nathan Vasher is as good as it gets at CB, and despite having some shaky performances last year, Charles Tillman is a great complement on the other side. Vasher brings finesse and speed, while Tillman can physically pound the other team's best receiver. Adding Ricky Manning Jr. and Dante Wesley will greatly improve the secondary and defense as a whole, because it will allow the starters to get more rest if the offense is having trouble staying on the field on that particular day. S Mike Brown, when healthy, is a top-five player at his position. Chris Harris did a great job as a rookie last year, but should be replaced by second round choice Daniel Manning this season. Coaches are raving about Manning with his blazing speed and ability to learn the system so quickly. Also, watch out for third-round pick Devin Hester. If you've seen him return a punt, you know what I mean. He will be the best return man since Dante Hall, mark my words. Expect the Bears to run away with the division. 13 wins seems realistic.
The Vikings seemed to have left off where they started last year, and that's not a good thing. The problems have already begun, most recently with the release of WR Koren Robinson after his latest run-in with the law. QB Brad Johnson, age 37, will attempt to recreate last year's magical run at the end of the season, but you have to figure that at his age, his body won't have much left to give. Another question mark is RB Chester Taylor and his ability to be the feature back for the entire season. It's uncertain whether or not he can handle the load by himself, and it speaks volumes that Baltimore chose to keep Jamal Lewis, who had been in jail and was rehabing a broken ankle, rather than re-sign Taylor. Robinson would have been their number one receiver, but without him, second-year WR Troy Williamson will have to learn as fast as he runs. A team whose best two wide outs are an unproven speedster and a broken-down Marcus Robinson is not in good shape offensively, to say the least. And to compound the problem, the signing of OG Steve Hutchinson for roughly $50 million is absurd and leaves them with no flexibility to add anyone of significance in the near future. The defensive side of the ball should be a bit better than the offense. Also, the Vikings have changed to a Cover-2 scheme. Even if they had the correct personnel to carry out this type of defense, which they don't, switching philosophies equates to at least two years of adapting to a new system. Their number one draft pick, LB Chad Greenway, is out for the year, because, for some unexplained reason, he was played on special teams where be blew out his knee. I would say an 7-9 record sounds about right for the Vikings.
In Detroit, the addition of offensive coordinator Mike Martz won't be as significant as people think. After all, you still need talent to work with in order to have success. QB Jon Kitna is a backup, nothing more, and proved this by constantly making stupid mistakes at the worst times in Cincinnati. Second stringer Josh McCown does have some potential, but according to reports from multiple coaches, well let's just say he isn't the most cerebral of quarterbacks. Guys like that tend to quickly fall out of favor with Martz, who incorporates the most complicated offensive playbook in the league. WR Roy Willams is pro bowl-caliber, but Detroit has no other option to take the pressure off of him, because first round picks Mike Williams and Charles Rogers are both busts, which leaves the Lions depleted at the wide receiver position. I like RB Kevin Jones, and think that in the right system he could be a top back in the league, but I don't think that he will have a good year statistically, because Detroit will not be able to stretch the field, consequently allowing defenses to load the box with 8 players and focus on the run. On defense, the Lions are average at best. Their number one pick, LB Ernie Sims, has suffered nine, count 'em, nine concussions and has been told by doctors that if he gets one more his playing days are over. Yeah, that sounds like the right player to take with the 10th overall pick. They have some good names such as DE Kalimba Edwards, LB Boss Bailey, and CB Dre' Bly, but as a unit, Detroit's defense isn't scaring anybody. If the Lions reach six wins, they should consider that a step in the right direction.
Oh, how the mighty have fallen in Green Bay. Brett Favre is already complaining that his body aches everyday after practice and it seems as if he is holding on one year too long. RB Ahmad Green has returned, which should help take the pressure off of Favre somewhat, and help him to make fewer mistakes than last year, but, with all his knee problems, Green will never be the back he was only three years ago. WR Donald Driver had an all-pro year and was one of the few bright spots for the Packers. Rod Garner is, at best, an average complement, and rookie Greg Jennings will give the team a spark off the bench every once in a while, but nothing more than that. Despite signing DT Ryan Pickett and CB Charles Woodson, the best addition in the off-season was draft pick A.J. Hawk. The first time you watch him play, he reminds you of when Brian Urlacher first came into the league. I expect him to develop into one of the premier LBs in the near future. It should be fun to watch Urlacher and Urlacher Jr. go at it for years to come. The signing of Woodson was an obvious case of a desperate team trying to convince their star QB to stay one more year. Look at his stats, he didn't catch more than one INT the last 5 years and they pay him close to $25 million? Ryan Pickett will be solid, but overall it is looking like another abysmal season for the Packer faithful. I predict that QB Aaron Rodgers will be handed the reigns next season, marking the end of the Favre era. Six wins, in my opinion, is the maximum for this team.
Carolina, in my opinion, is a good team but they are not as good as some of the TV pundits think. QB Jake Delhomme is another quarterback wh oin my opinion is overrated. To be fair, his game does seems to raise to a notch or two come playoff time but there are much better all-around QBs in the NFL. RB DeShaun Foster, who had to share time at the beginning of the season, ended the year with a respectable 879 yards on only 207 carries, with two rushing touchdowns. He really began to hit his stride just before the playoffs and rode that momentum until he broke his leg in Chicago. If he can stay healthy, a problem which has plagued him through his career, he is primed for a big year. If for any reason he goes down, the Panthers drafted his insurance policy, first-round pick DeAngelo Williams, who in the near future should take over full-time duties in Carolina. The skills of WR Steve Smith have been well-documented. 1,563 yards, 103 catches, and 12 TDs, is a year that most can only dream about. Carolina's passing attack improved with the acquisition of Keyshawn Johnson, who brings two things to the table: first, opposing teams can no longer double or triple-team Smith, which might actually increase his production, and second, Johnson will make those tough catches over the middle, allowing Smith to play vertically instead of risking the chance of injury. That said, don't expect his addition to put Carolina over the top. His numbers have gone down each year for the last 3 seasons and his age is starting to show in both the passing game as well as in his blocking techniques. Let's put it this way, his mouth runs faster than his legs do at this point. Carolina, along with Chicago, should be considered the top defensive team in the NFC. They boast the most athletic front four, led by Julius Peppers, that I have ever seen. With players such as DE Mike Rucker, DT Kris Jenkins, LBs Na'il Diggs and Dan Morgan, and CBs Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas, the Panthers are a force to be reckoned with. However, I think that their offense will struggle, putting a huge strain on the defense which will cause their statistics to be misleading. While I think that they should win the division, don't expect them to run away with it.
I love the moves that Atlanta has made so far this offseason. First was the trade for DE John Abraham of the Jets, who wanted out of New York so badly that he was basically given away for nothing. Abraham has averaged 9.16 sacks per year and is considered one of the better talents at DE in the league. Adding him into the mix with DE Patrick Kerney, DTs Rod Coleman and Grady Jackson, LB Keith Brooking, and shut-down corners DeAngelo Hall and Allen Rossum, makes for one heck of a defense. Next, they went out and traded for WR Ashley Lelie of the Broncos, who led the league with 17.2 yards per catch. All the Falcons had to give up was backup running back T.J. Duckett, who they shipped to the Redskins. Washington then sent a third round pick to Denver. Lelie, along with Michael Jenkins and TE Alge Crumpler, will give Michael Vick multiple options on offense. Warrick Dunn continues to be solid, rushing for 1,416 yards on 280 carries. However, he only ran for three rushing TDs, a number which should improve now that Duckett's not there to take red zone carries away from Dunn. And finally I come to my "X" factor, Mr. Vick. I personally think that while he has a rocket for an arm, his passing is mediocre at best. In my opinion, he should be moved to either WR or RB, something which will never happen, but that's how I feel so I thought I'd share it. In fact, I think that Matt Schaub is a better quarterback than Vick. Read the wording carefully. I didn't say he was a better football player or better athlete, I said better quarterback, and he is. Schaub would be starting for alot of the teams in the league if Atlanta's management would agree to send him elsewhere and not let him rot away on the bench. Vick's 73.1 passer rating and 55.3 completion percentage is not nearly good enough for a player of such high expectations. We all know Atlanta's pattern; one good year one bad, and last year was a bad year. Will this season be a successful one? Tune in and find out.
Tampa Bay is an interesting team to analyze offensively. Chris Simms, Tim Rattay, Jay Fieldler, and Bruce Gradkowski, who I just saw tear apart Jacksonville's starters in the preseason, give the Bucaneers extreme depth at the QB position. Carnell WIlliams rushed for 1,178 yards on 290 carries and had 6 TDs. He was one of the most over-used backs in the league, something which could be seen by all the nagging injuries he had to deal with last season. John Gruden cannot make the same mistake and push Williams too hard. His carries should go down so expect the rest of his stats to follow. The one weakness for Tampa which jumps out at you, is the lack of quality WRs on the roster. They do have Joey Galloway, who with his outstanding speed, is able to break the game open at any moment. He caught 83 passes for 1,287 yards and 10 TDs, which is nothing to sneeze at, but he begins this year at the age of 34, and for receivers that's pushing the envelope. Tampa will be counting on second year WR Michael Clayton to carry more of the load, but don't expect too much. He only had 372 yards receiving last year. Tampa's defense, while still good is not even close to where they used to be. With Simeon Rice leading the defensive line, Derrick Brooks running the linebackers, and Ronde Barber lurking in the secondary, it would be safe to think that the Bucanneers will be able to stay close with most of their opponents and produce a good number of takeaways next season. All in all, I see them as a last place team in this particular division.
New Orleans won't be as bad as some people might think, in fact they might play spoiler on more than one Sunday. Drew Brees will be a fresh breath of air at the quarterback position, please excuse the pun, considering that Saints fans had to endure watching Aaron Brooks operate behind center for years. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister will be a formidable combination in the backfield, and depending on the situation, New Orleans plans to put them on the field at the same time. Joe Horn is a quality, veteran reciever and his stats should go up because of the presence of Brees. I might be crazy but watch for this kid Marques Colston from Hofstra. He is a WR who the Saints drafted in the seventh round of the NFL draft and he migh tbe the reason that New Orleans was so willing to deal Stallworth to Philadelphia. On defense is where the real problems lie. There aren't many big names to talk about other than DE Will Smith and CB Mike McKenzie and it appears that the Saints are primed to give up more points than they score. Their secondary is extremely old and have absolutely no speed which will hurt them on many ocassions down the road. The Saints could be exciting and will give alot of joy to a city in shambles. Wouldn't it be the feel-good story of the year if they were to somehow make it to the playoffs? It's almost as if they are a team with an angel lookin gover their shoulder, beggining with Reggie Bush, somehow, someway, slipping to them with the second pick in the draft. All year you'll hear the phrase "Team of destiny" etc. Maybe it's not so far-fetched.
The NFC West should be a bit more interesting now that Arizona has improved themselves. However, the division clearly belongs to Seattle and I don't see the Cardinals overtaking the Seahawks, at least for another 2 years. Matt Hasselbeck is one of the more solid QBs in the game and brings stability to the Seahawks. That said, Seattle will have a huge problem if he goes down with any kind of injury. The Seahawks number two option is Seneca Wallace, who is actually better suited to play WR, as he showed with his 40-yard reception in the playoffs, so needless to say losing Hasselbeck would completely ruin the season for Seattle. Nothing really needs to be said about Shaun Alexander, after all he does hold the record for touchdowns in a season, but again, if for some reason he hurts himself, there is nobody even close to adequate who could take his place. Also, will Alexander post the same stats with the departure of Steve Hutchinson? Taking his place is 6-4, 330 pound OG Floyd Womack, who many think will be a serviceable blocker, but will not perform at the level of Hutchinson. Time will tell if it affects Alexander, numbers wise. At WR, Seattle will rely heavily on Nate Burleson, who despite only having 30 receptions, managed to rack up 328 yards with one TD before he was placed on the DL. In 2004, he had 68 receptions for 1,006 yards and 9 TDs. The Seahawks have thrown a lot of money his way in hopes that he stays healthy and has a big year. I wouldn't expect him to live up to his contract judging from his years in Minnesota. Rounding out a good but not great receiving trio is Darrell Jackson and the always-dependable Bobby Engram. On defense, Seattle should be better than last year with the addition of LB Julian Peterson. DE Grant Wistrom plays 100 mph on every down but that kind of style is starting to wear him down since he doesnt get to play in the cushy conditions of the dome in St. Louis anymore. LB Tofa Tatupu should improve on his pro bowl rookie season, and CB Marcus Trufant gives Seattle the ever-important shut-down DB. However, the more you look at Seattle's roster, the more you realize what a thin line they are walking. If the team falls ill to the injury bug, which is a huge part of the NFL, their roster is ultimately set up for disaster. It makes you wonder how they have gotten by this long. Still, they are the best team in this division, so barring any unforeseen events, they will win the NFC West crown again.
The Arizona Cardinals are an offensive juggernaut, although the injury to Kurt Warner last night against the Bears will hurt. Matt Leinart looked good in the preseason, and could soon be ready to take over full-time but I question how long he will survive in this league with such a weak arm. Edgerrin James will obviously upgrade an offense that ranked last in rushing yards per game but he won't come anywhere close to matching his production in Indianapolis. No Peyton Manning to stretch the field, and a mediocre offensive line, equals lower statistics for James. You won't find a better duo of receivers than the one the Cardinals have. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald will both make multiple visits to the pro bowl before they're done. Defense is where the problem lies for Arizona. In the past, they have invested multiple picks for the defensive side of the ball, all of whom have yet to come to fruition. CB Antrel Rolle, LB Karlos Dansby, and DT Darnelle Dockett are the only names that jump out at you. While those are three great players, three great players does not a defense make. Expect the Cardinals to make a small push for the playoffs, but fall short at the end. However, if they continue to build on defense, watch out in the next couple of years.
To everyone's surprise, the Rams will be a run-first team for the first time in a while. Stephen Jackson will be the focal point of the offense, and if he continues to progress from last year, he will be a dream for fantasy team owners this year. Mark Bulger is a good, accurate QB who had a passer rating of 94 and threw for nearly 2,500 yards with 14 TDs. However, don't count on him to stay healthy for an entire season. The Rams offense, on passing plays, utilizes no blockers in the backfield, resulting in hard hits from blitzing linebackers or DBs. WRs Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt are aging, and it shows in their progressively lesser stats so don't expect them to recreate the "Greatest Show on Turf" days. This is another average defensive team, at best but DE Leonard Little is the league's best kept secret. If he was playing in a major market such as New York, he would be a household name by now. But even he is 31 years old and beginning the latter part of his career. The problem with the Rams is that they are old at key positions. That never translates into success.
49er fans will not have to suffer through another year of rebuilding in my opinion. Alex Smith seems to be progressing nicely and has a good backup in Trent Dilfer to learn from. Frank Gore, a third-round pick, appears to be a steal for San Francisco. He will develop into a solid running back in the near future. However, other than those two, and new TE Vernon Davis, this is literally a team of no-name players. Man, do the 49ers have work to do on the defensive side of the ball. I feel bad for Joe Nedney, one of the best kickers in the league. He's wasting away his career in San Fransisco when he should have been granted a trade to a contender by now. Nedney is 33, and for kickers that is not too old. I would say he could play until he is 40, and hopefully by then he will be kicking for a winning team and helping them towards a Super Bowl because he's that good and deserves the chance. That said, I think that San Fran could push the Cardinals for second place in this division. I Have a feeling that the 49ers will surprise alot of people and make life more difficult that expected for Seattle and Arizona.
